SNAPSHOT 1: OREGON

SCALE AND FREQUENCY

• 1,800–2,300 wildfires are reported in Oregon each year.

• Average annual acreage burned (2010–2024): ~570,000 acres; 2020: >1.07 million acres.

• 95% of burned area occurs in July–September; Oregon’s effective “fire year” has expanded from 90 days in 1970 to 160+ days today.

• The average fire size has increased 6× since 1980, from ~60 acres to >360 acres.

• Since 2000, Oregon has experienced over 11 million acres burned—an area larger than Vermont and New Hampshire combined.

• 19,375 sq mi (≈20% of the state) are designated high or very high wildfire risk.

IGNITION AND DRIVERS

• Lightning ignites ~45–60% of total burned acreage each year.

• Human activity accounts for ~35% of ignitions (equipment, debris burning, campfires, vehicles, powerlines).

• Average annual temperature has risen 2.7°F in Oregon since 1980.

• Drought severity: 2021–2024 marked the driest four-year stretch on record for the western Cascades.

• Snowpack decline: down 25–40% since 1950, extending the fire season into late fall.

• Fuel loads in many ponderosa pine forests are 2–3× pre-1900 levels due to a century of suppression.

• Wind events >40 mph (east winds driving megafires) have doubled in frequency since 1990.

FIRE GROWTH AND BEHAVIOR

• A new ignition can grow from 10 ft² to 1 acre in under 2 hours in dry timber and 30 min in grassland.

• Fires double in size every 20–30 minutes under Red-Flag conditions.

• Median time from ignition → first detection: ~40 hours.

• Median time from ignition → containment: ≈92 hours (≈4 days).

• Fires reaching >10 acres have a 70% probability of exceeding 100 acres before control.

• Fires starting on weekends take ~15% longer to detect and contain than weekday ignitions.

• Average initial attack success rate has dropped from 97% (1990s) to 87% (2020s) statewide.

SUPPRESSION AND RESPONSE

• Average response distance: 20–40 mi from nearest staffed base.

• Average dispatch delay: 1.7 days; p90 delay: >3 days.

• Aerial suppression capacity peaks mid-August, yet 60% of ignitions occur in late July–early August, creating recurring resource gaps.

• Containment probability drops by 50% once a fire exceeds 10 acres and 80% once it exceeds 100 acres.

• Oregon currently has ~120 Type-1 or Type-2 crews available—roughly ½ the per-acre coverage of California.

ECONOMICS AND SPENDING

• Oregon’s annual wildfire budget: $693 million (2024), up 587% from a ~$75 million average (2000–2021).

• Suppression costs per acre have risen from $220 → $1,150+ in 20 years.

• 36% of spending goes to suppression, 31% to emergency response, <10% to prevention or detection.

• Wildfires now consume ~12% of Oregon’s entire state budget reserve annually.

• Estimated economic losses (property, timber, health, tourism) exceed $1.8 billion per year.

• Fire-suppression aircraft average $5,000–$8,000/hour; large air tankers exceed $25,000/hour with support.

HUMAN AND COMMUNITY IMPACT

• 300,000+ Oregonians have received evacuation orders since 2020.

• The 2020 Labor Day fires destroyed 4,000+ homes and displaced 40,000 people statewide.

• Insurance premiums in wildfire-prone counties have risen 300–500% since 2017; many homes are now uninsurable.

• Property losses (2017–2024): ~$5.2 billion statewide.

• Firefighter injuries/fatalities: 12 deaths, >200 injuries (2018–2024).

• Mental-health incidents among displaced residents increase 35% in the year following a major fire.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH EFFECTS

• Wildfires release 25–40 million metric tons of CO₂ annually—equal to emissions from 8–12 million cars.

• Smoke days (AQI > 150) in Oregon’s Willamette Valley have increased from <5 days/year (2000) to >35 days/year (2023).

• Hospital admissions for respiratory illness spike 30–50% during severe fire years.

• Wildfire smoke now contributes >50% of total particulate matter (PM2.5) statewide.

• Old-growth loss: only ~10% projected to survive the next decade without major intervention.

• Watershed degradation: post-fire sediment loads have tripled in the McKenzie and Santiam basins since 2015.

• Wildlife mortality: estimated 5–10 million animals affected annually through displacement or direct loss.

FUTURE RISKS AND TRENDLINES

• Oregon’s average annual temperature is projected to rise +3.5 °F by 2050 and +6 °F by 2100.

• Precipitation variability will increase by 10–20%, creating longer drought-to-storm cycles that fuel rapid ignition and flash flooding.

• The number of “megafire days” (fires >100,000 acres) could double by 2040 without significant mitigation.

• Fire suppression effectiveness could decline another 25% by 2050 under current staffing and detection conditions.

• By 2035, statewide wildfire damage costs are expected to exceed $2.5 billion per year in direct and indirect impacts.

SUMMARY

• Oregon’s wildfire system is overwhelmed, reactive, and unsustainable.

• Detection and dispatch lag behind ignition growth by tens of hours.

• Spending rises exponentially while outcomes stagnate.

• The ecological, human, and financial toll is compounding annually.

• Without autonomous, continuous early-warning infrastructure, Oregon will lose much of its mature forest and rural livability within a generation.